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Is Germany the new Italy?

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rurikbird

Part of the Furniture
Honorary Member
Seeing a fair bit of discussion over this on Twitter and among the pundits lately – should EPL clubs be more cautious with spending big money on players from the Bundesliga given how many have struggled to adapt here? Wasn't thought to be a problem in the past, but maybe something changed either in English or German football and now these leagues are less "compatible" than we thought.

I've compiled a list of most prominent Bundesliga (+ RB Salzburg) to EPL transfers in the last 4 years:

2018
  • Naby Keita – disappointing
  • Pulisic – looks good when he plays, but not sure he's fully justified his fee overall
  • Leno – success
  • Vestergaard – success, probably
  • Soyuncu – big success
  • Sokratis – clown
  • Schurrle – relegated
2019
  • Haller – shit
  • Joelington – shit
  • Gbamin – hard to say, bad injury and barely played since
2020
  • Havertz – struggled badly under Lampard, improved under Tuchel, but still not the same player he was at Bayer
  • Werner – bullet well dodged
  • Thiago – GOAT and no one say otherwise
  • Kabak – did OK under difficult circumstances with us, now getting ready to taste another relegation with Norwich
  • Minamino – struggling to make an impression
2021
  • Sancho – it's early, but struggling badly so far
  • Konate – too early to tell
  • Leon Bailey – hasn't started a game for Villa yet
  • Patson Daka – only 1 sub appearance in the league so far. Started last night vs Legia and was poor as Leicester lost the game 1:0
  • Rashica – no goals or assists for Norwich yet
Summarizing, out of 20 players in this list, so far you would say only 4 or 5 could be described as even moderately successful and arguably only one – Soyuncu – has enhanced his reputation after coming to England. In that time frame there have been lots of players coming from Spain, France, Holland, Portugal and yes, Italy that were unquestionably successful: Alisson, Bruno Fernandes, Lukaku, Edouard Mendy, Ruben Dias, Laporte, Rodri, Kovacic, Jorginho, Digne, Bissouma, Raul Jimenez, Jota, Cancelo, Trossard, Pedro Neto, Soucek, Partey, Reguilon, Allan, Gabriel, Raphinha, the likes of Tomiyasu and Maxwel Cornet recently etc, etc, etc. There seems to be no comparison – Germany (+ RB Salzburg, which is really part of the same ecosystem) is becoming increasingly popular as a foreign market for EPL clubs, but the returns are frankly rather meagre.

I don't know that it's possible to come up with one overarching theory to explain why that is and some of the players on that list still might come good. But one possible factor I'm thinking about is that since tactically the modern game is increasingly defined and dominated by German football thought and philosophy, the Bundesliga players are generally already used to their full potential and don't have much room for improvement by the time they are sold. We all know the "Klopp effect" that makes almost any player coached by Jurgen 10 or 15% better (which means any players we end up selling typically do not do too well in the rest of their careers); it's kind of like that, just less pronounced, but applied to the whole league. Best value lies in underdeveloped talent and Germany is the opposite.

Well, and another factor is of course that anyone from Germany truly worth buying is probably getting scooped up by Bayern. It's a shiny beautiful supermarket, but presentation is often better than the contents and all the tastiest bits have already been devoured by the rich glutton living in the room upstairs.
 
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Leno is shite and Soyuncu has been crap or injured since that good first season.
 
So be weary about signing Jude and Haaland for big money then? Is that what you’re saying?

Of course there are always exceptions, I'm sure Haaland will do well anywhere. But something to keep in mind for sure.
 
I noticed that you conveniently left out Kolasinic who you were quite an advocate for at the time :)

It's only in the last year or two that some of the top level talents have come to the Premiership and it's still early days for them so it'll be interesting to see how they progress. Prior to that it was more your mid-level type player where there is always going to be a higher rate of misses.

But an interesting debate for sure.
 
I noticed that you conveniently left out Kolasinic who you were quite an advocate for at the time :)

It's only in the last year or two that some of the top level talents have come to the Premiership and it's still early days for them so it'll be interesting to see how they progress. Prior to that it was more your mid-level type player where there is always going to be a higher rate of misses.

But an interesting debate for sure.

Haha, I guess that's because he was a free transfer so wasn't included on the lists I was looking at. Oh, and actually he came in 2017 anyway. I still like him as an attacking fullback, but clearly defensively he just cannot make it in a back 4 at the top level.
 
This is really player specific. I mean some of your examples are Joelinton, Haller, Rashica, Sokratis etc. None of these players were rated very highly. They were signed by mid table clubs, often for inflated fees, but those sort of bad signings are made all the time by various clubs from different leagues. I don't see that as a Bundesliga problem.

The real question to ask is whether they highly rated Bundesliga talents are adapting well to England. Of that, what do we have to go by:

Pulisic - talented player, but prone to injury and hasn't really hit the heights expected
Keita - as above
Havertz - struggled under Lampard, but still was relatively productive. Improving under Tuchel and should be a good player in the PL for years to come
Werner - one dimensional (but this was the opinion of most fans in Germany too, and a reason why Bayern never went for him)
Sane - brilliant, and integral to a couple of City title wins, before Guardiola dumped him, and he had injury problems
de Bruyne - best midfielder in the PL for the last 5 years
Firmino - absolute success
Schurrle - disappointing
Son - brilliant buy
Gundogan - very good and an integral player for City
Xhaka - oscillates between pretty good to absolute dogshit
Matip - injury prone, but very good when fit

For the likes of Sancho, Bailey, Konate and Daka, it's simply too early to make a judgment. But I don't see this at all as an indication that there's something wrong with Bundesliga. There are just as many successes as failures.
 
Didn't Daka transfer from the Austrian league? Also

Auba - another hit from Bundesliga

Other players who were highly rated and did not make the mark - Kagawa, Mkhitaryan.
 
This is really player specific. I mean some of your examples are Joelinton, Haller, Rashica, Sokratis etc. None of these players were rated very highly. They were signed by mid table clubs, often for inflated fees, but those sort of bad signings are made all the time by various clubs from different leagues. I don't see that as a Bundesliga problem.

The real question to ask is whether they highly rated Bundesliga talents are adapting well to England. Of that, what do we have to go by:

Pulisic - talented player, but prone to injury and hasn't really hit the heights expected
Keita - as above
Havertz - struggled under Lampard, but still was relatively productive. Improving under Tuchel and should be a good player in the PL for years to come
Werner - one dimensional (but this was the opinion of most fans in Germany too, and a reason why Bayern never went for him)
Sane - brilliant, and integral to a couple of City title wins, before Guardiola dumped him, and he had injury problems
de Bruyne - best midfielder in the PL for the last 5 years
Firmino - absolute success
Schurrle - disappointing
Son - brilliant buy
Gundogan - very good and an integral player for City
Xhaka - oscillates between pretty good to absolute dogshit
Matip - injury prone, but very good when fit

For the likes of Sancho, Bailey, Konate and Daka, it's simply too early to make a judgment. But I don't see this at all as an indication that there's something wrong with Bundesliga. There are just as many successes as failures.

I'm talking specifically about the phenomenon of recent years though – of course if you go back to the times when De Bruyne, Sane, Matip, Son, Berbatov, Kompany and Dzeko were signed Bundesliga was probably the best league to sign quality players. Who can forget Klavan the legend! But in the last 4 years, my list in the OP is basically what we have to go by and there are really not many successes there (although some can still turn it around).

And kind of reverse thing is happening at the same time with Italy – it used to be a stereotype that players from Serie A usually flop in England. Now, it looks to be one of the best places to shop for talent.
 
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I'm talking specifically about the phenomenon of recent years though – of course if you go back to the times when De Bruyne, Sane, Matip, Son, Berbatov, Kompany and Dzeko were signed Bundesliga was probably the best league to sign quality players. But in the last 4 years, my list in the OP is basically what we have to go by and there are really not many successes there (although some can still turn it around).

And kind of reverse thing is happening at the same time with Italy – it used to be a stereotype that players from Serie A usually flop in England. Now, it looks to be one of the best places to shop for talent.
4 years seems to be a fairly arbitrary cut-off, designed specifically to include the 4-5 high profile disappointments (Pulisic, Keita, Havertz, Werner) and to exclude the 4-5 high profile successes (Sane, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Son, Firmino) who are otherwise fairly recent.

I think this is just part of the regular highs and lows of the transfer market, which is influenced by a number of factors - system, coach, environment, price tag, expectation etc.

The entire theory in the OP could be falsified if Havertz hits 15 goals this year and Chelsea win the title. And further shattered if someone signs Haaland and Wirtz next year, and they instantly become two of the best players in Europe.
 
Well, I don't think they are doing too badly, in the circumstances:
  • Havertz – scored the winning goal in the CL final, but was pushed out of his best position by Lukaku
  • Werner – probably still wondering why he isn't wearing red, and crying about it.
  • Thiago – GOAT and no one say otherwise
  • Kabak – did OK. We did the dirty on him.
2021
  • Sancho – HHAHAHAHAHA
  • Konate – Always takes an eternity to get into the Liverpool Defence. Too young, and too early to judge
  • Leon Bailey – has saved Villa's ass on a few occasions already and looks one of their best players
  • Patson Daka – playing for a fucktard manager who left a set of nudes on Harvey Barne's phone
  • Rashica – It's Norwich!!

So yes, I will still take Jude and Ayemi
 
Very few were established stars on that list were they?

And it’s clear England is the best league in the world now by far.
 
Very few were established stars on that list were they?

And it’s clear England is the best league in the world now by far.

It pains me to say this but right now the Chelsea Academy is probably where I'd look at first if I was a (non-Liverpool) team hunting for future stars.
 
So yes, I will still take Jude and Ayemi

So will I, as should be clear from my posts.

Still, even if most of you don't sound convinced, I have a feeling something has changed or is changing with the Bundesliga in relation to England. Like when the food at your favorite restaurant suddenly tastes different, even though they insist nothing has changed. Be careful what you order.
 
4 years seems to be a fairly arbitrary cut-off, designed specifically to include the 4-5 high profile disappointments (Pulisic, Keita, Havertz, Werner) and to exclude the 4-5 high profile successes (Sane, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Son, Firmino) who are otherwise fairly recent.

We can do 5 years if you prefer. Add Aubameyang (success, although he cost a fortune), Renato Sanches (flop), Oliver Burke (flop), Kolasinac (OK for a free transfer), and Dragovic (meh). Not a big year for transfers from Germany, so hardly changes the overall picture.

The entire theory in the OP could be falsified if Havertz hits 15 goals this year and Chelsea win the title. And further shattered if someone signs Haaland and Wirtz next year, and they instantly become two of the best players in Europe.

Well, so far Havertz has scored 5 EPL goals in 33 games. He hit 46 in 150 games for Bayer. He has a long way to go to be considered a success.
 
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Just pointing out Bellingham has played 100 club games already aged 18. That all sounds a bit too much to me and I'd expect some burn out pretty soon.
Not sure I get this burn out theory of young players. They are amongst the fittest and certainly with the highest energy levels. Mentally they need to be managed but the number of games shouldn't impact this as much as pressure (high profile games). Hence I didn't get Southgate's recent omissions of Bellingham against two weak opponents.
 
I think it goes back to Owen and how we thought he'd break every record on the planet, but his decline started mid 20s and even he said it was because he'd played too much at a young age. You see players being smoothed into the first team over a number of years now usually. I thought Bellingham's stats seemed like a throw back.

Not that I know what I'm on about
 
I get the point, but it's a bit reductive. The main reason it's not a bad idea to look to Germany is simply because of the speed of play in the league, rather than any extra quality or competitiveness over other top 5 leagues. A good player can really come from anywhere at any time, but it'll always come to needing a great deal of luck and comfort/adaptibility too.

From the listed players there's a few that are underperforming and then some that were always a dodgy buy. It still baffles me with Keita, as some injuries aside he has had more than enough time. He's started this season fairly well and is finally looking solid, but he's still a far cry from the player that absolutely tore defences apart on the weekly for Leipzig.
 
OK, here's another way to look at this. Let's say the time frame is 5 years (last 5 summer/winter transfer windows). Which players came from another European league within this time frame and enhanced their reputation/rose in value? Obviously it's a judgement call, but I'll try to be objective and frankly I have no idea as I'm typing this what the result will be. Let's go!

Belgium
Dendoncker
Berge
Trossard
Danjuma
Djenepo


France
Bernardo Silva
Issa Diop
Bissouma
Moutinho
Guendouzi
Sarr
Saint-Maximin
El Ghazi
Gabriel
Edouard Mendy
Raphinha
Meslier
Andersen


Germany
Soyuncu
Demarai Gray


Italy
Salah
Rudiger
Alisson
Jorginho
Lucas Torreira
Pedro Neto
Allan
Lukaku
Tomiyasu


Netherlands

Portugal
Ederson
Ricardo Pereira
Raul Jimenez
Bruno Fernandes
Ruben Dias


Spain
Laporte
Digne
Jota
Rodri
Kovacic
Fornals
Partey
Ferran Torres
Odegaard
Reguilon


So obviously some names can be subtracted or added to/from this list, I don't mean to start an argument over each name, but I tried to apply the same criteria to everyone and I think the results are pretty interesting. France dominates numerically, but a lot of their players listed are more on the lower end of the spectrum, whereas world-class level talent acquired in the last 5 years mostly came to England by way of Spain, Portugal and Italy. I think Germany does look barren by comparison (even with the generous addition of the Demarai Gray who spent 6 months at Leverkusen and is now suddenly tearing it up under Rafa's tutelage), but the biggest surprise for me was Holland – not a single successful transfer directly from Netherlands in the last 5 years! Check out these names: Zyech, Van de Beek, Davinson Sanchez, Klaasen, Locadia, Jahanbakhsh, Bergwijn, Pröpper – this is not a list devoid of talent, but they all have been either outright flops or failed to set the league alight. After Suarez, I can't remember the last time someone who came directly from Eredivisie and turned out to be a good investment (obviously doesn't apply to Dutch players who first played in other countries or came earlier like Van Dijk). Since Germany and Netherlands are pretty culturally close, does that mean anything? I don't know. But looking at this list made me understand a little better why Klopp has not gone back to the Bundesliga in search for new players since Matip, Klavan and Karius.
 
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