The end of days
Isakly what we need
- Thread starter Hansern
- Start date
- Latest activity Latest activity:
View: https://x.com/JacobsBen/status/1948392801718174171?t=y8q1bauJcnhBkAaHROj-fA&s=19
We getting a free run?
130 1 for every million on Isak.
Greed, the deadliest sin of all and I’m here for it!!
Just spat my brew out.
Did you see this? Man City fan "In many religions, being greedy is wrong"
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Phh2SYs4cRk&t=258s
In fairness if we get Isak we are the Cunts we accuse Chelsea and City of being every other window.
Flowing well apparently.
Why, Because we decide to go big 1 in every 10 windows? We're building a team that's going to take us places for the next 4-5 years with the intention that very little else will need to be done......not to mention we'll be offsetting a lot of what we've spent so far next week/month.
Come back to me when we've been hit with 1 breach, nevermind 115.
Hughes will get the price down to 70M
(a) Hughes and Slot are hoarding all the top attackers so we don't have to fret about replacing Konate.
(b) They're preppers getting ahead of a projected sharpish drop in Salah's production.
(c) They want to take turns dishing the Dirty Harry routine to opposing managers pre-game.
I hardly think Slot sold Ekitike (as his father said) on him playing LW. I'm also sure Slot didn't sell Wirtz (as he and his father both stated) with playing him at LW either !
I think this forum is hurtling off the rails fantasising how these new players are going to fit into our 2025/6 formation!
But with our OWN money.
Seeing as he was bang on the money earlier today. New update
View: https://x.com/anfieldsector/status/1948414081280414065?s=46
View: https://x.com/anfieldsector/status/1948414081280414065?s=46
I'm happy to have both regardless, because it's an opportunity for me to say that it gives us Isakly the insurance we need in case Ekitike turns out to be shitake.
Sounds like Newcastle will go for Sesko as Isak's replacement. All falling into place.
I'm hoping the new full backs will provide the width and the three forwards will be inside, getting into the box instead.
I have serious reservations about Isaks fragility but maybe Slots magic sponge will work on him too.
Agree. It's a bit of a step down for him after imagining himself at a top club though.
This is going to be a long, nerdy post about whether we can afford Isak, based on our activity to date (and likely future sales). This will give an insight into the kind of work our finance team will be doing behind the scenes. Obviously it's based on public info / speculation so there will be a degree of error, but thought I'd share it anyway. I've ignored Nat Philips and the two new reserve keepers on the basis they'll essentially cancel out.
Profit on sale
Firstly, let's look at the players sold and the rumoured fees (guaranteed amounts only, add-ons will improve things). I'm only looking at the impact for 2025-26 at this point:
Completed sales
Irish Kev - sold to Brentford, fee of £12.5m, wage saving c £2m, profit on sale £12.2m, saves amortisation charge of £0.3m. So profit impact £14.5m.
Quansah - sold to Leverkusen, fee of £30m, likely wage saving of £3m, negligible amortisation benefit. So profit impact of £33m.
Diogo (RIP) - guessing we'll get insurance money of £25m, plus cover for wages of £5.3m. Profit from insurance of £11.9m. Total profit of £17.2m. Don't mean to be insensitive, I'd obviously prefer that he was still with us.
Trent - fee of £8m from Real for the early signing, plus wage saving of £7.2m = £15.5m profit benefit.
Total benefit to date = £80.2m,
FWIW on wages, I've assumed £40k p/w for Kev, £50k for Q, £100k for Diogo, £130k for Trent (my assumption being that if he'd stayed, we'd have been paying him at least that much). Don't at me or quote spurious stat websites saying Q was on 50p a week or something, these are best guesses. The extra cost comes from social security and expected agent payments / agent-related bonuses. I've ignored performance bonuses on the assumption any savings get paid out to the new guys.
Prospective sales
Rumoured sales and values:
Nunez- £40m (we're not getting £50m)
Chiesa £11.5m - this is my figure and is based on his book value
Elliot £40m
Diaz £70m
Kostas / Robbo £8m (best guess)
Morton £8m (best guess)
Doak £25m (doubt we'll get that TBH but it's been rumoured).
That would give total proceeds of £202.5m, profit on sale of £140.7m and save amortisation of £27.2m - so total profit impact of £167.9m.
Wage savings estimated at £30.8m (there are chunky agent-related payments for Darwin and Chiesa). Assumed wages - Darwin £150k, Chiesa £100k, Elliot £50k, Diaz £120k, Left back £50k, Morton £10k, Doak £15k. Even if you believe Diaz is on £5 an hour or something, £120k is the least we'd have to pay him to stay, so the figure stands.
Total potential extra profit of £198.7m.
Total sales impact on profit = £278.9m.
Purchases to date
Fees (guaranteed only):
Frimpong £29.5m
Wirtz £105m
Hugo £69m
Kerkez £40m
Agent fees (club share, best guess)
Frimpong £4m
Wirtz £7m
Hugo £6m
Kerkez £4m
Total additions = £264.5m.
Amortisation impact = £50.1m (NB not a full-year charge for most of them). I've based this on a 5-year maximum, even though Ekitike is rumoured to have signed a 6-year deal - using the FFP 5-year over-ride).
Wages - my best guess:
Frimpong £100k
Wirtz £200k
Hugo £150k
Kerkez £100k
Add in on-costs and first share of agent fee and that comes out at £41.2m for the year.
Overall summary - profit
Profit on sale = £202.7m
Amortisation difference = £16.3m extra charge
Wage difference = £7.3m saving
Net profit from trading = £193.7m
Overall summary - cash
Transfer payments (1/3 of fees and agent fees) = £88.2m
Transfer receipts (1/3 of fees) = £92.7m
Wages saved = £7.3m cash inflow
Net cash impact + £11.8m
Conclusion
We need to make those sales, but if we do, then we will have made serious accounting and cash gains based on our activity to date. We'll have £11.8m net cash to spend, plus whatever our original budget was.
Can we afford Guehi? Abso-fucking-lutely.
Can we afford Isak too - it'll be a stretch, but probably.
BUT ONLY IF WE MAKE THOSE SALES.
Profit on sale
Firstly, let's look at the players sold and the rumoured fees (guaranteed amounts only, add-ons will improve things). I'm only looking at the impact for 2025-26 at this point:
Completed sales
Irish Kev - sold to Brentford, fee of £12.5m, wage saving c £2m, profit on sale £12.2m, saves amortisation charge of £0.3m. So profit impact £14.5m.
Quansah - sold to Leverkusen, fee of £30m, likely wage saving of £3m, negligible amortisation benefit. So profit impact of £33m.
Diogo (RIP) - guessing we'll get insurance money of £25m, plus cover for wages of £5.3m. Profit from insurance of £11.9m. Total profit of £17.2m. Don't mean to be insensitive, I'd obviously prefer that he was still with us.
Trent - fee of £8m from Real for the early signing, plus wage saving of £7.2m = £15.5m profit benefit.
Total benefit to date = £80.2m,
FWIW on wages, I've assumed £40k p/w for Kev, £50k for Q, £100k for Diogo, £130k for Trent (my assumption being that if he'd stayed, we'd have been paying him at least that much). Don't at me or quote spurious stat websites saying Q was on 50p a week or something, these are best guesses. The extra cost comes from social security and expected agent payments / agent-related bonuses. I've ignored performance bonuses on the assumption any savings get paid out to the new guys.
Prospective sales
Rumoured sales and values:
Nunez- £40m (we're not getting £50m)
Chiesa £11.5m - this is my figure and is based on his book value
Elliot £40m
Diaz £70m
Kostas / Robbo £8m (best guess)
Morton £8m (best guess)
Doak £25m (doubt we'll get that TBH but it's been rumoured).
That would give total proceeds of £202.5m, profit on sale of £140.7m and save amortisation of £27.2m - so total profit impact of £167.9m.
Wage savings estimated at £30.8m (there are chunky agent-related payments for Darwin and Chiesa). Assumed wages - Darwin £150k, Chiesa £100k, Elliot £50k, Diaz £120k, Left back £50k, Morton £10k, Doak £15k. Even if you believe Diaz is on £5 an hour or something, £120k is the least we'd have to pay him to stay, so the figure stands.
Total potential extra profit of £198.7m.
Total sales impact on profit = £278.9m.
Purchases to date
Fees (guaranteed only):
Frimpong £29.5m
Wirtz £105m
Hugo £69m
Kerkez £40m
Agent fees (club share, best guess)
Frimpong £4m
Wirtz £7m
Hugo £6m
Kerkez £4m
Total additions = £264.5m.
Amortisation impact = £50.1m (NB not a full-year charge for most of them). I've based this on a 5-year maximum, even though Ekitike is rumoured to have signed a 6-year deal - using the FFP 5-year over-ride).
Wages - my best guess:
Frimpong £100k
Wirtz £200k
Hugo £150k
Kerkez £100k
Add in on-costs and first share of agent fee and that comes out at £41.2m for the year.
Overall summary - profit
Profit on sale = £202.7m
Amortisation difference = £16.3m extra charge
Wage difference = £7.3m saving
Net profit from trading = £193.7m
Overall summary - cash
Transfer payments (1/3 of fees and agent fees) = £88.2m
Transfer receipts (1/3 of fees) = £92.7m
Wages saved = £7.3m cash inflow
Net cash impact + £11.8m
Conclusion
We need to make those sales, but if we do, then we will have made serious accounting and cash gains based on our activity to date. We'll have £11.8m net cash to spend, plus whatever our original budget was.
Can we afford Guehi? Abso-fucking-lutely.
Can we afford Isak too - it'll be a stretch, but probably.
BUT ONLY IF WE MAKE THOSE SALES.
Well it looks like we want them both. And I hardly think Slot sold Ekitike (or his father) on him being a back up CF only.
I think he will play both CF and LW. I expect Slot to rotate more too. We'll effectively have 4 forwards in Gakpo, Salah, Isak and Ekitike. Wirtz (AM/LW), Frimpong (RW), Ngumoha (LW) and Szobo (LW, RW and AM) will be cover for the wide positions too in certain games.
Who?
