Isakly what we need

[Woland]

I'm actually terrible at business which is why I'm still working, but I'd be selling some players before I bought others so people knew where I was in the cashflow cycle. I don't understand this at all. But I'm not a multi billionaire hedge fund boss so I get it, I don't know how it works

 

[Beamrider]

I'm actually terrible at business which is why I'm still working, but I'd be selling some players before I bought others so people knew where I was in the cashflow cycle. I don't understand this at all. But I'm not a multi billionaire hedge fund boss so I get it, I don't know how it works

100% agreed. This is the constant tussle between finance and football. The football guys are always confident we'll make the sales and want to push on buying. Finance are saying we need to make those sales pronto. FSG always side with the football guys.
That's how we ended up keeping Lucas as long as we did. He was always on the sell list and they never managed to get him out the door. That's my nervousness with Nunez right now.

 

[Dreambeliever]

One of my friends here asked why the fuck are Liverpool signing Isak after getting Hugo.

My answer back was in my best Thomas Shelby accent, ‘Why? Because we fucking can! Because we fucking can. And if we can, we do!!!’

 

[Hansern]

I think some of the imminent sales are much more advanced than what’s being reported.

 

[peterhague]

100% agreed. This is the constant tussle between finance and football. The football guys are always confident we'll make the sales and want to push on buying. Finance are saying we need to make those sales pronto. FSG always side with the football guys.
That's how we ended up keeping Lucas as long as we did. He was always on the sell list and they never managed to get him out the door. That's my nervousness with Nunez right now.

I can't say I'm a big fan of this line I keep hearing about the club having set some price for a player based on some completely spurious precedent. "Liverpool believe Nunez's price has been set by some mad Saudi team offering £70m in January".

Err, that's not how prices work, Liverpool.

 

[bazazaba]

Exactly.

20m I'd happily pay for minimum a league or CL the next 2 seasons. We're in win now mode. So we need to fucking win

Given the average age of guys we've brought in this summer (22.5 for the lot of them -- low of 21, high of 24), and that the likes of Konate, Gravenberch, Mac Allister and Gakpo are 24 ~ 26, I think Edwards, Hughes and co. are thinking beyond win now. They have serious ambitions of hogging the freaking perch for several years after the "now".

 

[Mystic]

It's somewhat a moot point considering all our signings minus Kerkez and hypothetically Isak will play a number of positions and combinations depending on our opponents, but if Isak signs, Ekitike is obviously playing on the left as his 'primary' position. He'll probably like it as he's channelling his next coming of Henry in his play and style, and Wirtz playing centrally alongside him means those two will work and rotate with each other quite nicely in the left forward half space, meaning he'll get in behind quite often, similar to what we've seen from Salah and Szlob before, it's quite exciting.

 

[rurikbird]

I had no idea why Newcastle would have wanted both Isak and Ekitke, and the same applies to us. Isak excitement aside, I don’t like the idea of spending so much on Ekitike as either a Díaz replacement or a second striker.

That said, with Gakpo’s goal scoring last year and Riu potentially stepping up into the first team, combined with Jota’s passing, maybe it does make sense for the attacker to be more of a natural nine who can play left wing, rather than a left winger who can fill in as a nine. But that places a lot of faith in a young kid being a rotation option, and sometimes first reserve.

I just hope we know what we’re doing. I generally have faith we do, but this would take some convincing. Not the Isak signing, that's obviously boss.

The only thing I’ll say at this point is that having Isak and Ekitike in the same team probably makes more sense for us than it did for Newcastle, given how we’re competing for top prizes on all fronts plus have key players like Salah going away to AFCON. We need more than one #9 if we want to go deep in all competitions.

I still think this is all an elaborate scheme to increase traffic on SCM and make the admins a few quid.

 

[Beamrider]

Just wanted to follow up on the finance post I did a couple of days ago.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that we sign both Guehi and Isak, on top of the business I already costed up.
Total fees of £160m, combined wages of £370k per week (assuming £120k for Guehi, £250k for Isak) and agent fees of £13m (club share).
That adds about £53.8m of cost in 2025-26, and a nudge more per annum thereafter.
With the big profits on sale in 2025-26, we're fine for FFP for the next 3 years, but after that, when that profit drops out of the three-year count back, we've got huge additional costs over 3 years (about £85m per annum) that we need to cover with growth in revenue and profit, or we will fail FFP. So not a massive financial gamble for the next 3 years, then it becomes a huge issue. Villa have had a similar experience with the Jack Grealish profit dropping out of their numbers.
We'd probably need to cover that shortfall by making sales over the next 2-3 years to bump the profits up, and let's not forget we have Mo and Virgil to replace in 2 years' time.
So this is a summer that could still bite us in the arse further down the line, even if the signings pay off in a football sense.
That said, it's possible that 115/130 will have been decided by then and FFP won't be a thing anymore.

 

[jan]

One of my friends here asked why the fuck are Liverpool signing Isak after getting Hugo.

My answer back was in my best Thomas Shelby accent, ‘Why? Because we fucking can! Because we fucking can. And if we can, we do!!!’

Jesus fucking christ

 

[bluebell]

Just wanted to follow up on the finance post I did a couple of days ago.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that we sign both Guehi and Isak, on top of the business I already costed up.
Total fees of £160m, combined wages of £370k per week (assuming £120k for Guehi, £250k for Isak) and agent fees of £13m (club share).
That adds about £53.8m of cost in 2025-26, and a nudge more per annum thereafter.
With the big profits on sale in 2025-26, we're fine for FFP for the next 3 years, but after that, when that profit drops out of the three-year count back, we've got huge additional costs over 3 years (about £85m per annum) that we need to cover with growth in revenue and profit, or we will fail FFP. So not a massive financial gamble for the next 3 years, then it becomes a huge issue. Villa have had a similar experience with the Jack Grealish profit dropping out of their numbers.
We'd probably need to cover that shortfall by making sales over the next 2-3 years to bump the profits up, and let's not forget we have Mo and Virgil to replace in 2 years' time.
So this is a summer that could still bite us in the arse further down the line, even if the signings pay off in a football sense.
That said, it's possible that 115/130 will have been decided by then and FFP won't be a thing anymore.

Do you think revenue will surpass £800m after 25/26 season? These guys wouldn't spend unless they knew they could afford it.

 

[Hansern]

Just wanted to follow up on the finance post I did a couple of days ago.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that we sign both Guehi and Isak, on top of the business I already costed up.
Total fees of £160m, combined wages of £370k per week (assuming £120k for Guehi, £250k for Isak) and agent fees of £13m (club share).
That adds about £53.8m of cost in 2025-26, and a nudge more per annum thereafter.
With the big profits on sale in 2025-26, we're fine for FFP for the next 3 years, but after that, when that profit drops out of the three-year count back, we've got huge additional costs over 3 years (about £85m per annum) that we need to cover with growth in revenue and profit, or we will fail FFP. So not a massive financial gamble for the next 3 years, then it becomes a huge issue. Villa have had a similar experience with the Jack Grealish profit dropping out of their numbers.
We'd probably need to cover that shortfall by making sales over the next 2-3 years to bump the profits up, and let's not forget we have Mo and Virgil to replace in 2 years' time.
So this is a summer that could still bite us in the arse further down the line, even if the signings pay off in a football sense.
That said, it's possible that 115/130 will have been decided by then and FFP won't be a thing anymore.

How will that stack up against UEFA? In 3 years time FFP might have changed and be more like UEFA, right?

 

[Beamrider]

Do you think revenue will surpass £800m after 25/26 season? These guys wouldn't spend unless they knew they could afford it.

I think it's possible next season (25-26), but we may fall just short. We should exceed £800m the following season though.

 

[bazazaba]

Next season, we'll probably sell Viteslav Jaros if we need to window dress. He was on loan at Sturm Graz helping them win the league and cup title last season, and he inked a new contract before going on loan at Ajax (a step up).

I think Ben Doak's last contract was signed in 2023 and runs till end of the 2026 season, and if that's correct, then we'll probably get him to sign a new contract soon then send him on loan and hope he stays fit and impresses again to raise his value. Rather that than sell him now, unless we need the money or the offer is too good to pass.

We might be able to afford to touch up the numbers next season by moving Jones if we need to. Leaves us short at CM but perhaps that opens room for one of McConnell, Bajcetic or Nyoni, whoever impresses and is ready to step up. Of the three, I think McConnell is inking a new contract soon, Nyoni has already extended, and Bajcetic's contract runs till end 2027 season. Perhaps 2 out of 3 go on loan this season, we keep one as an understudy and then we sell the other two if we need to next summer.

One of the challenges we seem to have is that our young lads can't seem to stay fit when they go on loan. That surely doesn't help when it comes to marketing them.

 

[Beamrider]

How will that stack up against UEFA? In 3 years time FFP might have changed and be more like UEFA, right?

PL will eventually follow UEFA principles, but will always be more generous (e.g. with FFP, they allow £105m losses, UEFA allows €5m (or €60m if covered by equity injection, but that extended limit can't be used every year, from memory). With the squad cost ratio, the UEFA target is 70%, PL target is 85% (and it's only voluntary monitoring for now, no enforcement / fines).
I specifically referenced FFP (i.e. UEFA rules) as their targets are more restrictive. If we comply with UEFA rules, then we're nowhere near PL rules.
It's why I keep making the comment that all these journos talking about PSR compliance (PL rules) are fucking clueless, that's not what we are working towards, and even if we comply with PL rules but fail UEFA rules then we're on a sticky wicket.
Case in point, Chelsea "technically" complied with PSR but got bummed by UEFA.
And we should be fine with UEFA rules for the next 3 seasons (I'm assuming we'll be OK with squad cost rule, but haven't checked it as it's very subjective) but we could fall foul of UEFA profit rules from season 4 onwards if we don't ramp up our profitability in the meantime.

 

[Hansern]

Thanks mate!

 

[the count]

 

[Hansern]

Newcastle will want this over the line first, maybe?


View: https://x.com/transfersector/status/1948756349149417605?s=46

 

[Judge Jules]

I think he'd do very well there with that midfield behind him plus Elanga and Gordon on the wings.

Rather them than see him go to the Arse though.

 

[jan]

Getting Sesko would be quite a coup for Newcastle, especially after being rejected by almost everyone they tried to sign - including their own star player it seems

 

[Frogfish]

I'm actually terrible at business which is why I'm still working, but I'd be selling some players before I bought others so people knew where I was in the cashflow cycle. I don't understand this at all. But I'm not a multi billionaire hedge fund boss so I get it, I don't know how it works

Double edged sword though.

If you buy first then try to sell : the buyers will think "they've got to sell, we can get this down"
And if you sell first then buy : the sellers of your targets know how much, at a minimum, you have in the kitty and push the price up !

If you've had discussions before either buying or selling at least you have ballpark figures to work on.

 

[Hansern]

Getting Sesko would be quite a coup for Newcastle, especially after being rejected by almost everyone they tried to sign - including their own star player it seems

Sesko, like Gyokeres, didn’t see many coming in for him this summer. Clubs must have their reservations about paying that fee for him.

Quite telling for Gyokeres that no top club bar Arsenal wanted him and that his previous manager even didn’t look interested.

 

[darkstarexodus]

100% agreed. This is the constant tussle between finance and football. The football guys are always confident we'll make the sales and want to push on buying. Finance are saying we need to make those sales pronto. FSG always side with the football guys.
That's how we ended up keeping Lucas as long as we did. He was always on the sell list and they never managed to get him out the door. That's my nervousness with Nunez right now.

I just posted something aligned with this in the Diaz thread.

If we're in on Isak, then we should be willing to take slightly less to make a Diaz transfer happen faster and clear the way.

If we're not, then we don't need to sell and should dig in.

 

[bluebell]

Newcastle fan looses it

View: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/57jjLj6VjFM

 

[Farkmaster]

If isak is the world's best striker football really is shit these days. I think he's really solid, and that's about it.

 

[Shay_K]

If isak is the world's best striker football really is shit these days. I think he's really solid, and that's about it.

Agreed, I like him in our team but I'm not sure that he's a 120 mil striker, I rather get 2 at 60 mil and play the one in form.

 

[Mamma Mia]

I really don't understand all this talk about how much we're comfortable spending on him.

It would make sense if we hadn't already signed 4 top players and had gaps in the squad.

Spend 200m on him if we have it, who fucking cares? We're not going to go bankrupt, we're not breaking the rules, and we don't need to sign any more players after this for a while.

 

[darkstarexodus]

Agreed, I like him in our team but I'm not sure that he's a 120 mil striker, I rather get 2 at 60 mil and play the one in form.

The market is fucked but you don't actually want 2x60M strikers, I feel fairly certain of that. That gets you someone like Hojlund.

 

[keniget]

The exorbitant fees and overall expenditure becomes a problem if we find ourselves in a position where every signing has to hit 100%.

We need to leave ourselves some room to maneuver in future transfer windows.

 

[Hansern]

If isak is the world's best striker football really is shit these days. I think he's really solid, and that's about it.

He’s top 3 in the world imho. Absolute don of a striker. He’s got everything and suits us to a t.