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Florian and the (Slot) Machine

Florian Wirtz seamlessly continued his great performances from Leverkusen’s glorious 2023-24 season into the 2024-25 campaign.

He assisted 12 goals this term, a new personal best and just one short of equalling the club record for a single Bundesliga season (since 2004-05). It was also only bettered by Bayern’s Olise (15), however all 12 of Wirtz’s were from open play, a tally no one could better.

Above all, his interaction and synergy with top-scorer Patrik Schick stood out, assisting a third (7/21) of the Czech’s Bundesliga goals this season – no other player set up a team-mate as often in the German top flight in 2024-25.

He wasn’t just setting goals up, though. He scored his fair share, too.

It was the second successive season in which Wirtz reached double figures for goals (10) and assists (12); since 2004-05, Thomas Müller (5) is the only other German to manage this in more than one Bundesliga season.

Whether he can extend that to three consecutive campaigns will depend on whether he’s still in the Bundesliga. At the very least, everything points to a Leverkusen farewell in the coming months.

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Top 5 League Midfielders
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→ Progressive carries per 90

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View: https://x.com/Squawka/status/1926234942138089871


View: https://x.com/pranav_m28/status/1924526049343492163


View: https://x.com/DataMB_/status/1932795017237594532

(European Leagues Top 5 Midfielders)
↑ xG + xA per 90
→ Shots per 90

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View: https://x.com/DataMB_/status/1928058750251737361
 
Every transfer is a gamble. But less so when the data nerds are in charge and when we're signing an absolute baller that is plug and play.
What is the evidence that a player who’s never played outside of Germany is a plug and play to England? I’m not saying he won’t hit the ground running, but what evidence is there to make that statement true?
 
What is the evidence that a player who’s never played outside of Germany is a plug and play to England? I’m not saying he won’t hit the ground running, but what evidence is there to make that statement true?
Have you seen his performances in the Champions league and for Germany?
 
It’s like everyone is forgetting the calibre of teams and defending along with the pace of the game and physicality is streets ahead of any other league including Germany.

Obv we all want him to replicate it but it’s not a forgone conclusion and at that price is a huge gamble. We can afford another Darwin at almost double the price.

There are way more examples of big signings seemingly perfect for a team that haven’t worked out.

Playing for Liverpool is a whole other animal.

Data can’t tell you whether a player will shine or shrink in that environment.

I’m hoping he’s Torres and not Darwin.
 
It’s like everyone is forgetting the calibre of teams and defending along with the pace of the game and physicality is streets ahead of any other league including Germany.

Obv we all want him to replicate it but it’s not a forgone conclusion and at that price is a huge gamble. We can afford another Darwin at almost double the price.

There are way more examples of big signings seemingly perfect for a team that haven’t worked out.

Playing for Liverpool is a whole other animal.

Data can’t tell you whether a player will shine or shrink in that environment.

I’m hoping he’s Torres and not Darwin.
Lucky we never signed Messi back in the day, no idea how he'd have coped with Richard Dunne and James Collins.
 
He is far more of a known quantity than Nunez, who was bought only for his potential, which wasn't realized.

He isnt a project player.

The big risk with him, beyond the risk of failure or injury inherent in any buy, is that we are buying him either to play in a system we don't currently play, playing him in a position he doesn't currently play, or we are playing him in his preferred position and waging that his extra attacking impetus makes up for the concessions on the other end. We also don't have a reliable striker for him to play in.

My only other worry is that he's a young player with lots of miles already.
 
It’s like everyone is forgetting the calibre of teams and defending along with the pace of the game and physicality is streets ahead of any other league including Germany.

Obv we all want him to replicate it but it’s not a forgone conclusion and at that price is a huge gamble. We can afford another Darwin at almost double the price.

There are way more examples of big signings seemingly perfect for a team that haven’t worked out.

Playing for Liverpool is a whole other animal.

Data can’t tell you whether a player will shine or shrink in that environment.

I’m hoping he’s Torres and not Darwin.

You’re inadvertently answering your own question.

The whole point of data would be to find things that are translatable and narrow down the probability that he does succeed.

It’s not just data - but I disagree in that data will be able to give you a better idea of whether a player will or will not shine - otherwise you’re arguing that all data is irrelevant.

Wirtz isn’t like Darwin - you look at Darwin’s data, even at face value, and it looks the same… except for that one season before we signed him - so the data likely suggested he’d do exactly what he did.

Wirtz data has an entirely different shape to it and is more consistent over time.

That’s only at face level data - the whole point about data analysis is to be able to find those things that can be transferred accurately.
 
Also… I’m flagging it now… my spider sense is tingling that Dreamie is setting up next seasons Salah or Ange thread where he promises not to tell us he was right by trying to maintain he was right all along at every opportunity he has,

After every match we can expect to be told Wirtz is overpriced and a waste of money every time he isn’t MOTM.

In fact, being Dreamie, even when he is MOTM, Dreamie will do the “Dreamie Double Down” and proclaim that he still expected more… you know like “yeah… he created 53 clear goal scoring opportunities and we done 27-0… but I’d expect a player of his cost that’s a supposed generational talent should have also scored about 15 and made me a cup of tea while giving me a sponge bath”.
 
What is the evidence that a player who’s never played outside of Germany is a plug and play to England? I’m not saying he won’t hit the ground running, but what evidence is there to make that statement true?

24 G/A in 32 games in the Europa league. 7 G/A in the Champions league. He's excellent wherever he plays.
 
Also… I’m flagging it now… my spider sense is tingling that Dreamie is setting up next seasons Salah or Ange thread where he promises not to tell us he was right by trying to maintain he was right all along at every opportunity he has,

After every match we can expect to be told Wirtz is overpriced and a waste of money every time he isn’t MOTM.

In fact, being Dreamie, even when he is MOTM, Dreamie will do the “Dreamie Double Down” and proclaim that he still expected more… you know like “yeah… he created 53 clear goal scoring opportunities and we done 27-0… but I’d expect a player of his cost that’s a supposed generational talent should have also scored about 15 and made me a cup of tea while giving me a sponge bath”.
I’ll happily celebrate his success as I’ve never said he won’t be successful, I’m pointing out that his signing at this price is a huge huge gamble, the outcome is irrelevant. The risk is high, nothing chances that.
 
24 G/A in 32 games in the Europa league. 7 G/A in the Champions league. He's excellent wherever he plays.
And fingers crossed he’ll be excellent where he hasn’t played which is in England with the prsssure of being the most expensive English signing ever and the extra pressure of carrying the weight of our history and expectations on his shoulders
 
And fingers crossed he’ll be excellent where he hasn’t played which is in England with the prsssure of being the most expensive English signing ever and the extra pressure of carrying the weight of our history and expectations on his shoulders

I think the whole «playing in England» bit is over exaggerated to the extreme.
 
I’ll happily celebrate his success as I’ve never said he won’t be successful, I’m pointing out that his signing at this price is a huge huge gamble, the outcome is irrelevant. The risk is high, nothing chances that.

Yes it does. All transfers are gambles but not all gambles are the same. Odds are calculated based on past performance and Wirtz's past performance is stellar.
 
I’ll happily celebrate his success as I’ve never said he won’t be successful, I’m pointing out that his signing at this price is a huge huge gamble, the outcome is irrelevant. The risk is high, nothing chances that.



What WirtzYou’re a betting man Dreamie - what’s better, a calculated higher risk with a chance of greater rewards, or a lower risk bet that’s likely to drop much lower rewards?

For years we’ve been screaming out about not being able to sign the best talent while watching Chelsea, City and Utd do it.

Ultimately, what does it matter if he doesn’t succeed - City paid £100m for Grealish and won trophies, Chelsea squandered millions on Lukaku… twice… and won trophies… we spent big on Darwin / and we still won the league.

Isn’t this what we wanted?
 
I think the whole «playing in England» bit is over exaggerated to the extreme.

I agree - although I do think the same pace and speed physicality of the game in England doesn’t suit every player.

I think the club environment and buying players who either fit in, are adaptable or dictate your style of play is important.
 
If we didn't need someone on our team who has great close control on the ball, a really gifted technical player, why do we watch videos of our DM turning? That's how thirsty we are for this. It's sad.
 
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