Isakly what we need

[Hansern]

Good read and watch for those not fully behind this transfer


View: https://x.com/benbocsak/status/1945791590686949778?s=46


View: https://x.com/benbocsak/status/1945782803343307155?s=46


View: https://x.com/benbocsak/status/1891877726736244947?s=46

 

[moron]

We’ve been scouting him since he played for Reims, and Edwards and the stats nerds love him. That’s enough for me.

You can say what you want about Newcastle but their recruitment have been spot on for a long while now talent wise. I actually feel even better with this transfer knowing that they have tracked him for 3 years and tried to sign him 3 times as well.

@Hansern - if Edwards likes him then he is good enough for us.

 

[Al_Gatto]

Bottom line is we need a striker and Etikike looks the best available. We were never getting Isak.

How many people slating Etikike would prefer going into next season with no striker? That's like walking to work cos a Porsche isn't good enough for you.

I'm a big fan of lads getting in scoring positions, if you can do that you will score goals and shooting can be improved on. Just not if you're Darwin, who is an extreme case.

 

[Mystic]

This one seems to have picked up serious pace today.

 

[Hansern]

Regarding stats I think it’s obviously good to look at to build a profile of a player, but it’s equally important to look past just xG. Successful take ons, shots/shots on target, touches in the box etc.
xG alone doesn’t paint the full picture.

Darwin scored 26 goals from 18.4 xG in his last season at Benfica. The data nerds must have had their reservations about it being sustainable. Rightly so.

 

[Brizzle]

His profile looks great and it feels more of a long term signing than Isak would have been, although maybe Isak wasn’t available all along.

This would still be a serious show of intent.

 

[peterhague]

His profile looks great and it feels more of a long term signing than Isak would have been, although maybe Isak wasn’t available all along.

This would still be a serious show of intent.

Would it? Isak would've been a serious show of intent. This just seems like the best of a load of bad options.

 

[Fabio]

I've not really seen him miss much, but he's certainly hitting the target and the keeper makes a save, or he's taking a large amount of "low xG" shots, as he tends to pick the ball up from the edge of the box and try to makes chances from there.

Again, last season he was half a season in a 2 prong attack, and half a season as the spearhead, and still got a reasonable amount of goals.

I'm confident he could improve in that area.

 

[Fabio]

Would it? Isak would've been a serious show of intent. This just seems like the best of a load of bad options.

I think that's the crux of it

Isak would have been ideal, but short of terrifying money it was never going to happen.

The fact in world football there's a death of clinical strikers, means we need to go for the one that fits our system most. He's better than what we have.

I think he'll be able to drop in with zero teething troubles.

 

[Hansern]

His profile looks great and it feels more of a long term signing than Isak would have been, although maybe Isak wasn’t available all along.

This would still be a serious show of intent.

Indeed, and as said before a similar profile to Isak.


View: https://x.com/anythinglfc_/status/1945790450197049626?s=46

 

[Fabio]

Indeed, and as said before a similar profile to Isak.


View: https://x.com/anythinglfc_/status/1945790450197049626?s=46

Just look at that

The defensive contributions and aerial threat aspect are huge for us.

 

[Al_Gatto]

Isaks injury record is pretty poor, he seems fragile. Think he'll miss loads of games again next season. I guess that's why Nufc wanted Etikike. Imo pointless spending £130m on someone who feels 'a bit of discomfort' every other week. Maybe not a bullet dodged but I'm not gutted he's not coming.

 

[Hansern]

This explains a bit about Ekitike and xG btw.

Let's take a moment to recap... each of the four strikers analyzed so far within the context of the following metric: npG/npxG for big chances, % of shots that are big chances; npG/npxG for non-big chances:

🇫🇷 H. Ekitike: 1.07, 21.4%; 0.39
🇺🇾 D. Núñez: 0.67, 25.4%; 0.56
🇬🇳 S. Guirassy: 0.97, 37.4%; 0.96
🇸🇪 A. Isak: 0.97, 30.1%; 0.98

1.00 represents an even figure for the npG/npxG ratios, above is better, below is worse.

Ekitke has by far the lowest rate of his chances that are considered "big chances", and he also has the best npG to npxG conversion rate for big chances.

Thus, he is the only one with a large disparity between his two figures... Nunez is bad at both, Guirassy and Isak are median at both.

The Understat xG model drags players down more than Opta's, so don't read to much into the ratios themselves, rather that Ekitike finishes big chances at a better rate than strikers like Guirassy and Isak.

His overall xG numbers are just dragged down by having a huge number of "low quality" chances, which he has finished at a staggeringly low rate.

Hugo Ekitike has to hunt for his shots more than any other center forward at the top of the European game.

Well, I'm not sure if he has to, but he has the ability to, and nobody else does to his level except for the likely Ballon d'Or winner.

Below, I have plotted npxG per shot vs. % of shots that came from a carry (running with the ball 5+ meters) for T5 players with 75+ non-penalty shots this season.

Ekitike and Dembele are the only two with center forward type shot quality, but that create their own shots like wingers.

Look at where someone like Guirassy sits... that is true poacher territory.

As well, compare to Alexander Isak... the Swede is pretty self sufficient, but he receives a pretty good portion of his shots.

Thus, Ekitike is penalized in G-xG analysis because of his ability to generate shots that otherwise wouldn't even have been chances... would you rather a 4% chance at a goal or a 0%?

The answer is pretty clear, you want the player that creates the most xG.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

So, he's taking lots of shots from positions he shouldn't be taking them from. His decision making is poor?

 

[Hansern]

So, he's taking lots of shots from positions he shouldn't be taking them from. His decision making is poor?

I think it’s more an explanation of creating your own chances vs getting big chances created for you. The last one he’s pretty good at finishing. But I’m guessing it’s a result of Frankfurts lack of attacking ability. Highlighted after the sale of Marmoush in January.

 

[mark1975]

It's a thing that's used to big up poor players and big up teams who don't win games

It's what the ultra positive "ain't milk brilliant" brigade use to justify their rose tinted outlooks. Remember when Firmino and Origi were going to score 20 each next season? That sorta thing.

 

[Al_Gatto]

Maybe thats just a factor of being in a poorer side and taking shots because no other option is on. That's what the shot map above looks like. Definitely something that can be coached out of him. We don't really see shots outside the box in the PL these days.

By comparison, you'd expect Darwin to be scoring for fun given the creativity around him. Any decent striker is in dreamland with our setup. Even if Etikike only finishes the big chances that Darwin misses - which the stats suggest he would - we'd be better off than last season.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

I think it’s more an explanation of creating your own chances vs getting big chances created for you. The last one he’s pretty good at finishing. But I’m guessing it’s a result of Frankfurts lack of attacking ability. Highlighted after the sale of Marmoush in January.

But, the ones he's creating aren't great, if they're low xG? It absolutely could all change if he's playing in a different side, with different style and players. But the stats we have available aren't hugely impressive.

I'm sure our stat guys have lot more available to them though, and they tend to get it right more often than not.

 

[dmishra]

Ekitike was the one striker we were linked to I didn't want. I'm a hopeless optimist so the xg thing doesn't bother me that much, but you'd be a fool to argue it's not a concern.

I just don't think he looks very good.

Anyway, genuinely hope I'm completely wrong.

He's the striker I wanted most of the ones linked this summer. I think he's going to be excellent

 

[peterhague]

So, he's taking lots of shots from positions he shouldn't be taking them from. His decision making is poor?

That basically lines up with that video showing his last 60 shots. Well sort of. It wasn't that he took loads of really wild attempts, but a lot of the half chances - maybe in the box but out wide eg - his efforts were just really really tame. Basically, his shooting looked weak.

 

[MomoWASright]

I’d want to know about his goals with first touch in that area around the pen spot with feet and head. The set up of our team will be giving him those chances. I watched the last load of shots he’s taken and they are from shit angles and edge of the box.

 

[peterhague]

It's what the ultra positive "ain't milk brilliant" brigade use to justify their rose tinted outlooks. Remember when Firmino and Origi were going to score 20 each next season? That sorta thing.

Lol that's exactly the character I think of when Hansern's on one of his propaganda campaigns.

 

[FreshRed]

This explains a bit about Ekitike and xG btw.

Let's take a moment to recap... each of the four strikers analyzed so far within the context of the following metric: npG/npxG for big chances, % of shots that are big chances; npG/npxG for non-big chances:

🇫🇷 H. Ekitike: 1.07, 21.4%; 0.39
🇺🇾 D. Núñez: 0.67, 25.4%; 0.56
🇬🇳 S. Guirassy: 0.97, 37.4%; 0.96
🇸🇪 A. Isak: 0.97, 30.1%; 0.98

1.00 represents an even figure for the npG/npxG ratios, above is better, below is worse.

Ekitke has by far the lowest rate of his chances that are considered "big chances", and he also has the best npG to npxG conversion rate for big chances.

Thus, he is the only one with a large disparity between his two figures... Nunez is bad at both, Guirassy and Isak are median at both.

The Understat xG model drags players down more than Opta's, so don't read to much into the ratios themselves, rather that Ekitike finishes big chances at a better rate than strikers like Guirassy and Isak.

His overall xG numbers are just dragged down by having a huge number of "low quality" chances, which he has finished at a staggeringly low rate.

Hugo Ekitike has to hunt for his shots more than any other center forward at the top of the European game.

Well, I'm not sure if he has to, but he has the ability to, and nobody else does to his level except for the likely Ballon d'Or winner.

Below, I have plotted npxG per shot vs. % of shots that came from a carry (running with the ball 5+ meters) for T5 players with 75+ non-penalty shots this season.

Ekitike and Dembele are the only two with center forward type shot quality, but that create their own shots like wingers.

Look at where someone like Guirassy sits... that is true poacher territory.

As well, compare to Alexander Isak... the Swede is pretty self sufficient, but he receives a pretty good portion of his shots.

Thus, Ekitike is penalized in G-xG analysis because of his ability to generate shots that otherwise wouldn't even have been chances... would you rather a 4% chance at a goal or a 0%?

The answer is pretty clear, you want the player that creates the most xG.

That is pretty good analysis @Hansern. Decision making can definitely be coached and it is encouraging that he finishes the big chances, as these are the ones that seem to cause us a lot of draws that should be wins.

 

[dogboy]

It occurs to me that Newcastle are basically in the same position we were in when Arsenal bid £40m + £1 for Suarez. They might persuade the player to stay for another season but that will be it - he’ll go next year.
And if that’s what happens, if we’re going to go for someone else, I’d rather it was Mateta, a stop-gap but a known quantity, than Ekitike (promise but risk) who just feels like he could be another Nunez in terms of profile. We’d at least know what we were getting with Mateta and I think he would do a more than decent job for us.
Then we sign the guy we really want next summer.

Aye I'm in the same boat but with Wissa rather than Mateta.

 

[dogboy]

Indeed, and as said before a similar profile to Isak.


View: https://x.com/anythinglfc_/status/1945790450197049626?s=46

Should the issue that he plays in a worse league be taken into consideration with this?

 

[Fabio]

Should the issue that he plays in a worse league be taken into consideration with this?

Possibly, but he's also playing with worse players. It's always a gamble

 

[Hyena]

Should the issue that he plays in a worse league be taken into consideration with this?

I think the fact he is doing this for a (with all due respect) pretty shit team is something to take into account

 

[peterhague]

I think the fact he is doing this for a (with all due respect) pretty shit team is something to take into account

Eh? They finished third!

 

[Dreambeliever]

Isak is shite. Look at this.


View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DMNUuYsNMLM/?igsh=eWJvam0yaDlwajVh

 

[Hansern]

Isak will undoubtedly tear us a new one when we play them away in the second fixture of the new season. It’s written.