Florian and the (Slot) Machine

[MomoWASright]

I think there hasn’t been many successful transfers at that level.

Neymar didn’t delivery what he was bought to do, neither did Mbappe (who then left on a free), Coutinho a disaster, same for Joao Felix, Enzo, Griezman, Lukaku, Dembele and Pogba. Rice hasn’t delivered a trophy, Caicedo just boots people, Kane has a league and cup, Grealish won everything but wasn’t central to it. The ones I’d call a success are Bale and Bellendingham (to some extent).

 

[peterhague]

I think there hasn’t been many successful transfers at that level.

Neymar didn’t delivery what he was bought to do, neither did Mbappe (who then left on a free), Coutinho a disaster, same for Joao Felix, Enzo, Griezman, Lukaku, Dembele and Pogba. Rice hasn’t delivered a trophy, Caicedo just boots people, Kane has a league and cup, Grealish won everything but wasn’t central to it. The ones I’d call a success are Bale and Bellendingham (to some extent).

It's complicated because of the mad inflation rate in football. £75m for VVD is easily the equivalent of £115m for Wirtz.

I get the point though - there are a surprising amount of big money failures.

 

[Modo]

I'm fine with the fee as long as he starts producing something and we win things. I'm not fully on Dreamy's side here regarding stats, but +£100 mill has to mean something. Otherwise we should have signed fucking Xavi Simons or Cherki.

If I pay crazy money for a top notch sound system, is it wrong of me to expect a high quality output?

 

[Frogfish]

I think there hasn’t been many successful transfers at that level.

Neymar didn’t delivery what he was bought to do, neither did Mbappe (who then left on a free), Coutinho a disaster, same for Joao Felix, Enzo, Griezman, Lukaku, Dembele and Pogba. Rice hasn’t delivered a trophy, Caicedo just boots people, Kane has a league and cup, Grealish won everything but wasn’t central to it. The ones I’d call a success are Bale and Bellendingham (to some extent).

But it's not all on the individual. We only have to look at Stevie to see that. Sometimes even a world-class player can't lift his team from mediocrity. I can't judge a player's worth by the amount of trophies his team won.

From that list I'd say Neymar, Griezmann, Dembele (at PSG showing his true worth) and Rice were clearly worth the money. Caicedo too early to say but he's been an outstanding DM in many matches in a dire Chelsea team. Kane is another level and that's just down to Spurs being crap.

 

[Frogfish]

I'm fine with the fee as long as he starts producing something and we win things. I'm not fully on Dreamy's side here regarding stats, but +£100 mill has to me mean something. Otherwise we should have signed fucking Xavi Simons or Cherki.

If I pay crazy money for top notch sound system, is it wrong of me to expect a high quality output?

Well not if you live in an empty reverb box !

 

[Modo]

Well not if you live in an empty reverb box !

Speaking from experience? 😅

 

[StevieM]

I think there hasn’t been many successful transfers at that level.

Neymar didn’t delivery what he was bought to do, neither did Mbappe (who then left on a free), Coutinho a disaster, same for Joao Felix, Enzo, Griezman, Lukaku, Dembele and Pogba. Rice hasn’t delivered a trophy, Caicedo just boots people, Kane has a league and cup, Grealish won everything but wasn’t central to it. The ones I’d call a success are Bale and Bellendingham (to some extent).

I think it depends on context.

Figo, Zidane, Kaka & Ronaldo to Real were all record transfers at the time and you could hardly consider them failures or wastes of money.

If you look down the list of record transfers over time, yeah, some worked out, but lots were also well worth it.

That’s only the record transfers and not other big transfers at the same time.

For me it’s all about player and player fit - and you trust that the analytics team and scouting team have done enough sure diligence to support the transfer out key and you have a manager that has a plan how to use the player and is good enough to possibly improve them.

The transfer fee is a bit of a red herring - that’s not the determining factor of a players success or failure - it’s just something simple that people use when it suits.

As people have said - Virgil & Ali were both record transfers in their position - and both worth every single penny.

This is all part and parcel of being one of the best teams in the world - you want to sign the best, you need to pay for it, but you also need to be prepared for it to fail.

For years we bemoaned our cautious approach to transfers - I can’t get my head around the overly critical approach now we’ve got our balls out flapping in the wind - this is what we’ve been crying out for - spend big, sign the best and fuck it, if it doesn’t work, we’ll move them on for a reasonable fee and move on.

 

[StevieM]

"If Wirtz puts up Salah numbers over the next 10 seasons and drives us to winning multiple league and CL titles then he’ll be a success. Anything less and he won’t have justified the insane price we paid for a 22 year old from a farmers league."

Totally rational metrics.

In that case… can Dreamie please shut the fuck up for the next decade until we gather the info required to prove or disprove his theory. 😉

It reinforces my point - Dreamies starting point before a ball was kicked was that he was a failure and then deployed some sort of “mott and bailey fallacy” type argumentative style to defend that position.

I’m glad I’m not the only one seeing this.

 

[Mamma Mia]

In that case… can Dreamie please shut the fuck up for the next decade until we gather the info required to prove or disprove his theory. 😉

It reinforces my point - Dreamies starting point before a ball was kicked was that he was a failure and then deployed some sort of “mott and bailey fallacy” type argumentative style to defend that position.

I’m glad I’m not the only one seeing this.

AI sees it too:
---------------------

Managerial Judgment Day​

He forms immediate, powerful opinions on managers. He was initially vehemently against Arne Slot, calling the appointment an 'unnecessary gamble' that would 'end horribly', only to later champion him as the 'new messiah' and potentially a top-three manager in club history after a run of good results.

Evidence

• 'Ya this is just not the fucking guy. Will end horribly.' (April 2024)

• 'Arise Sir Slot!' (April 2025)

Notable Behaviours​

The Unfalsifiable Position​

This is Dreambeliever's signature tactic, a cornerstone of his debate strategy designed to ensure he can always claim to be right. He frames his initial negative predictions not as definitive statements of failure, but as warnings of 'high risk'. If the player or manager succeeds, he claims the 'gamble paid off' but insists his initial caution was justified. If they fail, he triumphantly claims vindication. This **sardonic** approach makes his positions intellectually bulletproof in his own mind, as the outcome is, by his own admission, 'irrelevant' to his core point about the initial risk. A truly magnificent commitment to never being wrong.

Evidence

• re: Wirtz: 'I called it watching his compilations and was torn to shreds. It was a stupidly high risk and I’m not in the least bit surprised he’s taking time to adjust. The question now will be if he cracks under the pressure.'

• re: Slot: 'Jury firmly out til adversity strikes. Solid start though.'

 

[mark1975]

No, just a general statement.

It's not really a general statement when you tail off with "your standards aren't good enough".

Your standards are impatient and lacking in perspective, but I'm just generalising.

 

[StevieM]

I'm fine with the fee as long as he starts producing something and we win things. I'm not fully on Dreamy's side here regarding stats, but +£100 mill has to mean something. Otherwise we should have signed fucking Xavi Simons or Cherki.

If I pay crazy money for a top notch sound system, is it wrong of me to expect a high quality output?

…. But would or more importantly will Simons & Cherki ultimately deliver more this over time?

That’s the thing - and I don’t thing you’re anywhere near Dreamie and n terms of position.

I think it’s ok to want world class performances from record signings, although it doesn’t always happen, and I think it’s ok to to point out he’s had a slow start - but none of that is necessarily an indication of which direct we’re ultimately going on.

As has been pointed out - Grealish cost much the same as Wirtz and is considered underwhelming.

If in the 29-30 season we’re in a position to bemoan Wirtz as being a failure - having contributed to winning, in 4 years :
3 x Premier Leagues (in a row)
1 x FA Cup (plus 2 additional lost finals)
1 x Champions League
1x UEFA Super Cup
1x World Club Championship

…then I’m here for it and happy to be hearing your or Dreamies explanation about how the most trophy laden period of our more recent history could have been better had we just not wasted £100m on Wirtz.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

It's not really a general statement when you tail off with "your standards aren't good enough".

Your standards are impatient and lacking in perspective, but I'm just generalising.

You're of the opinion that so far that he's performed at least as well as you'd expect a 100m+ signing to perform after 6 games? I think it's below, Ekitike is above, Isak is about par(smaller sample). It's not saying he can't or won't get there, just I'd hope for more so far, I think it's reasonable and fair to say so.

 

[mark1975]

Stevie did lift a mediocre team

You're of the opinion that so far that he's performed at least as well as you'd expect a 100m+ signing to perform after 6 games? I think it's below, Ekitike is above, Isak is about par(smaller sample). It's not saying he can't or won't get there, just I'd hope for more so far, I think it's reasonable and fair to say so.

I think it's daft to make any sort of judgement at this stage. We can all see where he's struggled, the club have explained the process for him to settle and that it might take time, we've seen it with other players. You're making an interpretation and overstating it. Why else would you ask if people think he has performed well enough? It's a moot point, we all know the situation and that it might be a while before we see the best of him. Show some perspective instead of being so fucking myopic and expecting a pat on the back.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

It sounds like we agree on where he's at actually.

 

[Dreambeliever]

You're being way OTT in your standard for Wirtz being worth the money though. 10 years of Salah-like numbers?! If he does that he'll have been worth about £500m, let alone £115m.

Isn’t that the bench mark for splashing that much money on a so called generational talent? That was the reasoning many gave for accepting the super high fee?

Maybe the numbers won’t be there but he certainly needs to be focal to our success and winning multiple trophies over a sustained period of success.

He’s essentially supposed to be a Mane equivalent with Isak Salah, or Coutinho to Suarez, or Gerrard to Torres.

That’s the level I expect when he’s toted as a generational talent for 116m.

Maybe I expect too much.

And contrary to some people’s believes I want him to succeed as much as anyone else as it’ll mean we are playing great free flowing football.

 

[Dreambeliever]

City signed Grealish for 100M who didn't quite work out. He did contribute to them winning the treble though.

Although we can't quite afford the luxury of a 100M signing for that kind of short-term success, I'd take it. Quad squad at last!

But really the hope and expectation is that we get the AM equivalent of Alisson or VVD. A transformational player. A De Bruyne or a D.Silva.

We don't need stats to tell prove that in the end - we'll all just know.

This.

 

[peterhague]

Isn’t that the bench mark for splashing that much money on a so called generational talent? That was the reasoning many gave for accepting the super high fee?

Maybe the numbers won’t be there but he certainly needs to be focal to our success and winning multiple trophies over a sustained period of success.

He’s essentially supposed to be a Mane equivalent with Isak Salah, or Coutinho to Suarez, or Gerrard to Torres.

That’s the level I expect when he’s toted as a generational talent for 116m.

Maybe I expect too much.

And contrary to some people’s believes I want him to succeed as much as anyone else as it’ll mean we are playing great free flowing football.

I'd say 10 years of top class service would more than justify the fee, which is what you were talking about.

What's my idea of top class service? Maybe averaging Coutinho's better years for us. Something like that. Around 20 PL goals and assists a season.

 

[Dreambeliever]

I'd say 10 years of top class service would more than justify the fee, which is what you were talking about.

What's my idea of top class service? Maybe averaging Coutinho's better years for us. Something like that. Around 20 PL goals and assists a season.

In hindsight Salah numbers was a stretch. I agree the Coutinho good years for at least 6-8 if not 8-10 imo.

I hope I’m wrong but I haven’t seen that X factor hiding beneath the adjusting to the premier league.

 

[Modo]

Man, that first half of the season with Coutinho, Mane, Salah and Firmino was football porn.
Imagine if we had, Virg, Fabs and Ali there too.

 

[FreshRed]

You're of the opinion that so far that he's performed at least as well as you'd expect a 100m+ signing to perform after 6 games? I think it's below, Ekitike is above, Isak is about par(smaller sample). It's not saying he can't or won't get there, just I'd hope for more so far, I think it's reasonable and fair to say so.

I think having any firm expectations of any new signing coming to the PL after six games is questionable - more so in a role where you are supposed to knit things together. It is much easier for a defender or winger or a CF.

But, I think it is fine to say it is not happening yet. If by the end of the season, we have no idea why we invested a 100m, then there is a real problem to discuss. I expect we will be singing his praises by Christmas. I hoped for sooner, but I think most reasonable people know that it COULD take time.

 

[MomoWASright]

I think it depends on context.

Figo, Zidane, Kaka & Ronaldo to Real were all record transfers at the time and you could hardly consider them failures or wastes of money.

If you look down the list of record transfers over time, yeah, some worked out, but lots were also well worth it.

That’s only the record transfers and not other big transfers at the same time.

For me it’s all about player and player fit - and you trust that the analytics team and scouting team have done enough sure diligence to support the transfer out key and you have a manager that has a plan how to use the player and is good enough to possibly improve them.

The transfer fee is a bit of a red herring - that’s not the determining factor of a players success or failure - it’s just something simple that people use when it suits.

As people have said - Virgil & Ali were both record transfers in their position - and both worth every single penny.

This is all part and parcel of being one of the best teams in the world - you want to sign the best, you need to pay for it, but you also need to be prepared for it to fail.

For years we bemoaned our cautious approach to transfers - I can’t get my head around the overly critical approach now we’ve got our balls out flapping in the wind - this is what we’ve been crying out for - spend big, sign the best and fuck it, if it doesn’t work, we’ll move them on for a reasonable fee and move on.

There could be something about that £100 million figure. The added weight of that figure destroys a players mentality. It’s a different game to the time of Zidane and Figo etc. The scrutiny is levels above. There will also be massive signings at the same time who were wank. Veron anyone???

It could also be the football gods going no I don’t think so.

I agree player and fit. I just don’t see that fit for Wirtz unless we are pivoting to a new formation either throughout this season or next when Salah goes. Even if that’s the strategy this is one massive gamble on something that may not work. One that can impact us for years and years.

The transfer fee will always be part of the conversation with him. He succeeds then it’ll be expected because of tha fee. If it fails then there finger pointing at us for fuck knows how long. We won’t get anywhere near our money back. He’s not a Nunez so Saudi won’t bail us out.

We’ve gone out and went who do we and the hipsters think are the best in the world and got them. It’s either going to be seen as balls flapping in the wind or spending the Klopp inheritance like a mad woman’s piss.

 

[MomoWASright]

But it's not all on the individual. We only have to look at Stevie to see that. Sometimes even a world-class player can't lift his team from mediocrity. I can't judge a player's worth by the amount of trophies his team won.

From that list I'd say Neymar, Griezmann, Dembele (at PSG showing his true worth) and Rice were clearly worth the money. Caicedo too early to say but he's been an outstanding DM in many matches in a dire Chelsea team. Kane is another level and that's just down to Spurs being crap.

Not one of them were worth it. £220 million for Neymar. Two hundred and twenty million. Dembele had to leave Barcelona so did Griezman. Deffo not worth it. Kane managed to break Bayern’s run of 78 consecutive league titles.

There’s a lot on the individual but for each of those big money signings you can make a case for spending just as much on two or three players to improve the squad and win things which is was PSG ended up doing for the European cup.

 

[Judge Jules]

There could be something about that £100 million figure. The added weight of that figure destroys a players mentality. It’s a different game to the time of Zidane and Figo etc. The scrutiny is levels above. There will also be massive signings at the same time who were wank. Veron anyone???

It could also be the football gods going no I don’t think so.

I agree player and fit. I just don’t see that fit for Wirtz unless we are pivoting to a new formation either throughout this season or next when Salah goes. Even if that’s the strategy this is one massive gamble on something that may not work. One that can impact us for years and years.

The transfer fee will always be part of the conversation with him. He succeeds then it’ll be expected because of tha fee. If it fails then there finger pointing at us for fuck knows how long. We won’t get anywhere near our money back. He’s not a Nunez so Saudi won’t bail us out.

We’ve gone out and went who do we and the hipsters think are the best in the world and got them. It’s either going to be seen as balls flapping in the wind or spending the Klopp inheritance like a mad woman’s piss.

I trust our backroom number crunchers to have gone into it a heck of a lot more thoroughly than that. Every transfer's a risk, but the bigger the fee the greater the care I'm sure we will have taken.

 

[peterhague]

Not one of them were worth it. £220 million for Neymar. Two hundred and twenty million. Dembele had to leave Barcelona so did Griezman. Deffo not worth it. Kane managed to break Bayern’s run of 78 consecutive league titles.

There’s a lot on the individual but for each of those big money signings you can make a case for spending just as much on two or three players to improve the squad and win things which is was PSG ended up doing for the European cup.

I think you're just trying to build a general rule from too small a sample size.

Until recently £100m transfers were practically by definition the preserve of really profligate, foolish clubs. A lot of the failures are just PSG and Barca, who were both uniquely wasteful during those years. If you cut those out then who are you really left with? Our two, Rice, Enzo, Grealish, Caicedo - any others?

None of those 4 have been failures in the sense you mean of the fee just weighing them down etc. Yeah all but Rice were overpriced but they looked it at the time - they all still performed roughly as you'd expect. I don't think you'd get that result if the roundness of the 100m (sterling) threshold was an issue.

Personally I don't have a problem with the fees for Wirtz or Isak based on their reputations. It's just whether they live up to them.

 

[MomoWASright]

I think you're just trying to build a general rule from too small a sample size.

Until recently £100m transfers were practically by definition the preserve of really profligate, foolish clubs. A lot of the failures are just PSG and Barca, who were both uniquely wasteful during those years. If you cut those out then who are you really left with? Our two, Rice, Enzo, Grealish, Caicedo - any others?

None of those 4 have been failures in the sense you mean of the fee just weighing them down etc. Yeah all but Rice were overpriced but they looked it at the time - they all still performed roughly as you'd expect. I don't think you'd get that result if the roundness of the 100m (sterling) threshold was an issue.

Personally I don't have a problem with the fees for Wirtz or Isak based on their reputations. It's just whether they live up to them.

There’s a chance we could be grouped with PSG and Barca in a few seasons.

 

[peterhague]

Calm down.

 

[StevieM]

I not sure where this talk of a new formation is coming from.

Surely Wirtz is just a more attacking but less robust version of Dom - the structure is still the same.

If anything the more definite changes have come in the number 9, although that seems to be a change for the better, and the bigger change is on the left where Rio is the closest thing we have to a Diaz replacement.

We’ve added more pace and running power in the FB positions, but it feels, again aside from left-sided forward, that we’ve just upgraded within existing structure.

 

[StevieM]

Also - there’s probably a discussion to be had about the whether signing Wirtz has pushed Dom to be at a higher level as he was the one most likely to lose out.

 

[MomoWASright]

I not sure where this talk of a new formation is coming from.

Surely Wirtz is just a more attacking but less robust version of Dom - the structure is still the same.

If anything the more definite changes have come in the number 9, although that seems to be a change for the better, and the bigger change is on the left where Rio is the closest thing we have to a Diaz replacement.

We’ve added more pace and running power in the FB positions, but it feels, again aside from left-sided forward, that we’ve just upgraded within existing structure.

Look at how Szoboszlai plays for us. He’s box to box. Mac Allister is box to box lite. Wirtz would be replacing either of those. He’s not box to box and leaves us weaker there in both defensive and somewhat physical shape. To me, that means we may switch to a 4-4-1-1 with him being a more orthodox 10 behind Isak or Ekitike.

 

[StevieM]

Look at how Szoboszlai plays for us. He’s box to box. Mac Allister is box to box lite. Wirtz would be replacing either of those. He’s not box to box and leaves us weaker there in both defensive and somewhat physical shape. To me, that means we may switch to a 4-4-1-1 with him being a more orthodox 10 behind Isak or Ekitike.

yeah, of course, but the trade off is greater attacking skill for less physical presence.

For me that makes sense if we’re playing low block teams.

I agree,” there is some work to do in terms of shape, but I’m not convinced that’s all to do with him as he’s not the only one that seems to gravitate to the inside left channel.

I mean 4-4-1-1 is basically 4-2-3-1 isn’t it, and even that is easily moveable to 4-3-3 depending on what you want in or out of possession.